Stocks of the three companies competing for the colonystimulating factor (CSF) market -- Amgen Inc., Immunex Corp.and Genetics Institute Inc. -- moved sharply on Monday inresponse to a strongly worded report by Shearson LehmanBrothers analyst Teena Lerner.
"Amgen's Neupogen/G-CSF is taking the oncology communityby storm, leaving competitor GM-CSF far in the dust," wroteLerner. Lerner said the contest for the CSF marketplace will bea landslide in favor of Neupogen rather than the close race shehad expected.
She predicts that Amgen will garner 70 percent of the U.S.market for CSFs, which are used to boost white blood cellproduction in patients receiving chemotherapy.
Amgen stock rose $5 on the report, closing Monday at $132.50.Stocks of competing Immunex and Genetics Institute, whichproduce granulocyte macrophage CSFs, took a beating.Immunex (NASDAQ:IMNX) closed at $40.50, down $5, andGenetics Institute (NASDAQ:GENI) closed at $29, down $7.63.Immunex stock has lost 29 percent of its value since anothernegative report on GM-CSF by Oppenheimer & Co. analystJeffrey Casdin sent the stock tumbling from $57 on April 5.
Lerner expects that Amgen will earn $3.80 per share for thecurrent year (fiscal 1992), rising to $10 by fiscal 1995. Sheexpects the share price to reach $160 next year and $200 in1993.
Lerner said Immunex would need $40 million in Leukine GM-CSF sales to break even at current expense levels, but sheexpects only $12 million in sales in 1991, rising to $30 millionin 1993.
Schering Plough's GM-CSF, which hasn't yet been approved, is"hopelessly behind," and Food and Drug Administrationapproval is unlikely before late 1992, Lerner said. GeneticsInstitute will receive 7 percent royalties on Schering's sales.
-- Karen Bernstein BioWorld Staff
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